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Solo dev mistake log
My daily revenue fell to a thirtieth: 92% of 14 days of income was one article
After a single article ran on a Taiwanese gaming site on October 15, daily revenue from PC Cafe Tycoon climbed to $51. On October 28 it was $1.7. Of the $260 I earned in the last 14 days, $241, about 92%, came from this one game, and most of that came from traffic the article created. What I got wrong was the order I read the numbers in. I watched the rising line first and never asked where the money was coming from.
The numbers first
When daily revenue suddenly turns down, you suspect the game first. I did too. But once I split the revenue ledger by game, the game was not the problem.
| Item | Number | Note |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 14 days | $260 | All my games combined |
| PC Cafe Tycoon alone | $241 | About 92% of the total |
| All other games combined | $19 | The total minus $241 |
| Daily revenue around the article | $51 | Mostly PC Cafe Tycoon |
| Daily revenue on October 28 | $1.7 | About one thirtieth of $51 |
What one article did
At 1:23 AM on October 15, I emailed a Traditional Chinese press release to the tip address of Bahamut GNN, a Taiwanese gaming site. The article went up at 11:59 AM the same day. It was the first hit out of the 143 emails I had sent by then.
On the day of the article, 393 new users came from Taiwan and Hong Kong. The next day it was 211, and a week later, on October 22, it was 7. Ad revenue hit ₩62,000 on the day of the article.
One article created traffic, but that traffic did not last a week. Most of that 92% of my ledger came from this article.
Where I read it wrong
While the revenue line climbed after the article, I read it as PC Cafe Tycoon doing well. I was wrong in two places.
First, I only looked at the total. All my other games together made $19 in the same period, but my revenue report had no line for each game's or channel's share. It was only the day I asked myself "why isn't the money coming in" that I split the ledger, and one number gave the answer. 92% was in one place.
Second, I read a rising line as a repeating line. I assumed a channel that hit once would hit again next week. Traffic from the article halved in a day and was almost gone a week later. I had no habit of reading the revenue curve next to the article's date.
What I changed afterward
I changed two things. The first is a one line share per game and per channel at the top of the revenue report. If one slot is over half, I also write down how low the total goes on the day that slot cools off.
The second is moving what worked to other games. On October 23, I wrote Traditional Chinese press copy for Korean Spa Tycoon and Chichi's Idle Bakery Tycoon and sent it, one game at a time, to 16 Taiwanese and Hong Kong outlets. That is 32 emails. Seven days after sending, I count whether an article ran, plus new Taiwan users and ad revenue.
This is not a new channel, though. It copies the same channel to other games, so it solves the dependence problem only halfway. If no article runs, the numbers stay where they are.
What to try first if you're in the same spot
If you are a solo dev whose revenue suddenly rose and then fell, open your ledger in this order.
- Split the last 14 days of revenue by game and write down what percent of the total the biggest slot is.
- Split that slot once more by country and traffic source.
- Check the dates first: was there an article, video, or community post near the day daily revenue turned down?
- If one slot is over half, work out the total for the day that slot cools off and put it in your report.
- Test what worked on a different route, not the same one.
FAQ
Why does mobile game revenue suddenly drop?
In my case it was traffic, not the game. Of $260 earned in the last 14 days, $241 came from one game, and most of that came from traffic created by one Taiwanese article. On the day daily revenue fell from $51 to $1.7, I should have first compared it with the dates of outside exposure such as articles and videos.
How long does one press release last?
A week in my records. On the day of the article there were 393 new users from Taiwan and Hong Kong, 211 the next day, and 7 a week later. One article did not create permanent traffic.
At what percent is it risky to have revenue concentrated in one game or channel?
I could not find a standard. Now I write down any slot that is over half, and work out the total for the day that slot cools off. In my ledger it was 92%.
How should a solo dev split revenue?
In three steps: by game, then by country, then by traffic source. A single total could not tell me why revenue went up or why it went down.
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